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#19 Sator

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Posted 04 October 2014 - 12:30 PM

I thought it was the Qu'ran we were meant to read. Wait...no...the Talmud.  :twitch:



#20 Sator

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Posted 04 October 2014 - 01:08 PM

More on the China bubble and how China will follow the path of Spain, Japan and the US:

 

1. The bad debt bubble beneath China’s economy

 

http://www.ipolitics...chinas-economy/

 

The report, called “Will China Repeat Japan’s Experience?” is by Naoki Kamiyama, an equity analyst in Japan, and David Cui, a strategist in Singapore. They say that the China of 2014 resembles the Japan of 1992, when a historic real estate bubble was beginning to deflate. “In general, it appears to us that the problem facing China today may be more serious than Japan’s in the late 1980s and early 1990s,” they write.

 

“Up until now, China has largely repeated Japan’s missteps,” Kamiyama and Cui write. Like Japan, China was overly dependent on exports, and the government resorted to stimulus when export demand fell in the financial crisis. That inflated an asset bubble, which China is seeking to deflate with tighter monetary policy. Now, they write, “the property market may be tipping over”—i.e., prices may be starting to fall. Bad debt is mounting. 

 

 

2. China May Soon Go the Way of Japan, Says Merrill Lynch

 

http://www.businessw...n-in-the-making

 

The risk of what Nobel laureate Paul Krugman calls “Japanification” — a semipermanent economic funk — has haunted China for at least a couple of years now. Last week a Bank of America Merrill Lynch report again asked, “Will China Repeat Japan’s Experience?”

 
Let’s dispense with the suspense: Yes, China very likely will. And the outcome will have far more serious global implications than Krugman’s main worry, which focuses on the chances of stagnation in Europe.
 
China’s “severely under-capitalized financial system,” “imbalanced growth” and chronic “overcapacity” all remind Merrill Lynch analysts Naoki Kamiyama and David Cui of Japan in 1992, when its bubble troubles first began to paralyze the economy. China is even more reliant on exports than Japan was in the 1990s, and its all-important property market now “may be tipping over.”

 

 


#21 Martin Stall

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Posted 04 October 2014 - 04:46 PM

More from Crisis Economics by Roubini:

 

 

In other words, the whole global financial system may well be rotten through and through. 

 

"May be"? How about "factually is"?


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#22 jukes

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Posted 05 October 2014 - 06:10 AM

The only way out I,m afraid is war, that's where all this will end up.
The major economies in the world are all in trouble, due to the decision to base their economies on the service industry instead of producing goods, which they decided could be carried out by the poorer countries with large populations producing cheaply made goods for a larger profit margin. The destruction of cultures by mass immigration is also adding fuel to the fire, along with leaders of countries who basically could not organise a kids Xmas party. We have a recipe for disaster.

#23 Martin Stall

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Posted 05 October 2014 - 06:44 AM

I can understand how you feel, but if this thread doesn't start showing something constructive and positive soon, I just might lock it ;)

 

Not to be bossy, but between Sator showing us harsh realities, your saying war's the only possible outcome, and DZ pointing us at doomsday prophets, I do believe the purpose and function of the forum is being missed.

 

What about we bring to the table some ideas that offer possibilities, hope, solutions...? Anyone?


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#24 Faith

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Posted 05 October 2014 - 02:50 PM

DZ, please say the doomsday prophet thing is just your comedic irony.

that said,

Jukes, the war theory has been at the back of my mind since, well, since before the fall of Saigon. As increasingly more of the world becomes politically, socially and/or financially unstable, WW3 becomes an increasingly greater likelihood. In reasonable situations all that instability could be settled by our various leaders, but we're plagued with too many "leaders" who couldn't reason their way out of their own tookus let alone reason together.

 

Hope? Baha'ists, Buddhists, Christians, Hindus, Jews, Muslims, Rastas, Taoists, Zoroastrians, and I'm sure there are others, are all waiting for Messiah to come set us all in order. May that happen soon and in our time. Until then, if we adopt as international law the Noahide laws (or some adaptation of them) we should be able to get along well enough to prevent war.

 

Solutions? How about we all stop using money and return to bartering with produce, livestock, and services? Good bye to all the balance sheets, inflation, deflation... we all know there isn't that much gold and silver to back all the paper in the world anyway (thank you, Ben Franklin, for introducing that system into the economy of a nation that would become a world power), so just abandon the unfixable complicated system and go back to the simple that works.

 

But of course, there are too many humans in the world, so the logical solution won't work.


Edited by Faith, 05 October 2014 - 02:51 PM.

If most women are not 5 feet 10 inches 120 pounds, why do these unrealistic models dominate the runways?


#25 Martin Stall

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Posted 05 October 2014 - 04:37 PM

Well you know, don't believe everything you read...


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#26 jukes

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Posted 05 October 2014 - 04:37 PM

I can understand how you feel, but if this thread doesn't start showing something constructive and positive soon, I just might lock it ;)
 
Not to be bossy, but between Sator showing us harsh realities, your saying war's the only possible outcome, and DZ pointing us at doomsday prophets, I do believe the purpose and function of the forum is being missed.
 
What about we bring to the table some ideas that offer possibilities,
hope, solutions...? Anyone?


It would be an interesting read to see how this mess can be resolved.
Any idea,s Martin ?

#27 Martin Stall

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Posted 05 October 2014 - 04:38 PM

Hm? Oh yes, for sure.

 

Martin for president ;)


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#28 Schneidergott

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Posted 05 October 2014 - 05:07 PM

I still favour the "Fight club" solution.

Once the banks and the related corporations are a thing of the past start all over.

 

 

Hm? Oh yes, for sure.

 

Martin for president ;)

 

How about becoming world leader?

 

 

That means you wouldn't have to negotiate with other presidents, Kanzlers, kings and whatever is left as "leaders".

No foul compromises to please everyone and result in practically doing nothing.

 

Regarding the Doomsday: It would be nice to have a proper date, so we could get our things sorted. Build bunkers in our gardens, stock supplies and so on.


"Nur der ist Meister seiner Kunst, der immer sucht, das Gute zu verbessern und niemals glaubt, das Beste schon zu haben."
"Only he is a master of his art who always seeks to improve the good and never believes to have the best already"

http://www.dressedwell.net/ It's snarky, but fun.


#29 Martin Stall

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Posted 05 October 2014 - 05:15 PM

Oh no, you misunderstood - I meant Galactic president.


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#30 Schneidergott

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Posted 05 October 2014 - 06:47 PM

Oh no, you misunderstood - I meant Galactic president.

 

 

Minor flaw in the plan: No warp drive yet. So better start with becoming the "President" of our solar system.

BTW, I think "KING" makes a much better title than emporer or president. It sounds nicer and is easier to pronounce for your Asian followers.

FWIW, I'd like to see a world (or galactic) leader in a nicely tailored and well fitted suit and /or uniform.

 

 

Any news about the Doomsday yet? Previous predictions have proven to be rather unreliable, to say the least.


"Nur der ist Meister seiner Kunst, der immer sucht, das Gute zu verbessern und niemals glaubt, das Beste schon zu haben."
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http://www.dressedwell.net/ It's snarky, but fun.


#31 Martin Stall

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Posted 05 October 2014 - 06:51 PM

I expect my future subjects to build a warpdrive ASAP.

 

And you may start on my suit now :)


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#32 Schneidergott

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Posted 05 October 2014 - 09:31 PM

I expect my future subjects to build a warpdrive ASAP.

 

And you may start on my suit now :)

 

 

I would love to, but without knowing when the world will end there is too much uncertainty. Also, if you make us go back to trading with goods and live stock, how much is my suit going to be worth?

And once you have the warpdrive (and the suit), who will guarantee us subjects that you won't do the Moonraker and leave us here on earth?

 

Getting rid of money is not a solution, btw. But you will have to have a system that is not entirely built on debt (lending/ borrowing) and greed. Which basically means changing the human nature.

Also, since the West has given most of its Know How away in return for cheap production and short term profits, I wonder how long it will take to educate the people again to actually produce things themselves rather than just consume what has been made elsewhere. The number of humans who can actually produce something that requires a skill is very low. Just think about how few tailors, cobblers, carpenters and a few others that won't have to rely on electricity are left.


"Nur der ist Meister seiner Kunst, der immer sucht, das Gute zu verbessern und niemals glaubt, das Beste schon zu haben."
"Only he is a master of his art who always seeks to improve the good and never believes to have the best already"

http://www.dressedwell.net/ It's snarky, but fun.


#33 Martin Stall

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Posted 05 October 2014 - 10:06 PM

You have nothing to worry about. All that will be clear on the other side of doomsday :Big Grin:


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#34 Sator

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Posted 05 October 2014 - 11:17 PM

 

... you will have to have a system that is not entirely built on debt (lending/ borrowing) and greed. 

 

Also, since the West has given most of its Know How away in return for cheap production and short term profits, I wonder how long it will take to educate the people again to actually produce things themselves rather than just consume what has been made elsewhere. The number of humans who can actually produce something that requires a skill is very low. Just think about how few tailors, cobblers, carpenters and a few others that won't have to rely on electricity are left.

 

Agreed.

 

We live in a world that is all about making money out of money. Speculation in shares, bonds, and currencies along with all sorts of 'novelties' (securities etc etc) have taken over as the basis of society. None of these things are productive, and are a dead end. Speculation does nothing more than blow bubbles that pop revealing the emptiness of it all. 

 

This is part of the reason why when we look at the past there were lots of highly skilled tailors around. We used to live in a productivity based economy. Anything productive is now grossly undervalued. The children of tradespeople now all go into finance instead to blow speculative bubbles.



#35 Martin Stall

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Posted 06 October 2014 - 12:20 AM

In other words: the entire economy is a bubble?


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#36 greger

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Posted 06 October 2014 - 04:46 AM

"We live in a world that is all about making money out of money. Speculation in shares, bonds, and currencies along with all sorts of 'novelties' (securities etc etc) have taken over as the basis of society. None of these things are productive, and are a dead end. Speculation does nothing more than blow bubbles that pop revealing the emptiness of it all."

Isn't there a name for that called enron?




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